Democratizing the Nuclear Neighbour

Despite the fears of a coup, India must ensure that conditions are maintained to retain some state of democracy in its nuclear neighbour.

Historically, relations between the Pakistan Army and the Indian government haven't exactly been friendly. Since Independence, they have bordered at extreme paranoia and complete distrust. Attempts to start/maintain peace between the two neighbours has seen the civilian government in Pakistan asking for the "go-ahead" from the Army. In case the above hasn't been done, the efforts to achieve peace have been scuttled at the very basic stage.

Thus, it is not in India's interest to allow the Pakistani Army into power. But any attempt to do so by using "unacceptable" methods would only ensure that the public opinion tilts in favour of the Army (something that has for the last couple of years prevented the army from coming to power). A more intelligent approach would involve encouraging the civilian institutions in Pakistan to maintain their grip on power mainly by covering them in the mainstream Indian and international news media. 

Also covert funding to moderate pressure groups in Pakistan would be an ideal path that the RAW (India's spy agency) can take in order to ensure that the public opinion remains in favour of the civilian institutions while at the same time ensuring that a balance is attained with the extremists. A situation resembling the current Indian state of affairs (extremely active civil society) would provide democracy the much needed boost that it requires in the country which has a history of democracies being overthrown by military coups.

For India, a military government is not acceptable considering the fact that all the wars that India has fought against Pakistan happened during the military rule. Thus any attempt to install an army government in Pakistan can only succeed if the 'terror of India' is created in the minds of the Pakistani people. The paranoia regarding India has always been the stepping stone that the Pakistan Army has needed to hoist itself to a position of direct power (indirect power involves tremendous amount of influence on the civilian government while refraining to portray itself as a major political power in the public eyes).

A face off with the US (though highly unlikely) would certainly create the buzz that the Pakistani Army needs while at the same time uncomfortable relations with India would certainly put the civilian government in an uncomfortable position. Thus attempts to improve ties between India and Pakistan should be on the top of the priority list for Pakistan.

Closer trade ties involve direct interaction between the people and thus the mistrust on either side is reduced every day little by little. It is only through such attempts of improving ties while at the same time not 'bowing down' with/to other countries in the public eye can the current government in power hold on to its present position and last till the next elections where the verdict might or might not go against them.

On the other side of the globe, it would be ideal if USA took steps so as to improve the ties with the current government in Pakistan at least till the elections are over. A civilian government in power is the only way the USA can attempt to get rid of the Taliban and terrorism which has time and again proved to be a strategic asset for Pakistan against its rivals in the Indian subcontinent.

Why India needs to intervene

Despite the anger in Pakistan regarding the NATO strike, it would be a wise decision for India to play the peacemaker between Pakistan and USA.

With the emotions of the populace boiling up, it is rare to see the leaders of a country take the right decision instead of the popular one. The leaders in Pakistan are faced with the same puzzle at the moment. With anger against the NATO and the USA rising, it would be wise for the Pakistani leadership to look at their present situation in a whole some manner and not overlook one aspect just because the pressure on the other aspect to be viewed is greater.

All the warnings, talks and decisions that are being given/taken by the civilian government/army in Pakistan would have tremendous consequences not only for Pakistan but also for the region as a whole. The US-Pakistani relationship has had a lot of bumps ever since the Abottabad raid but since then, this can be said to be the single worst incident in the relations of the two country. 

US presence in Pakistan and Afghanistan is essential for India's national security and also the security of the Indian interests is heavily dependent on the US presence there fore the time being at least, as India starts to play a greater role in Afghanistan and have a greater say in matters. Thus, the removal of the US boots from Pakistan would be a major blow to India and its interests. With the vacating of the Shamsi Airbase (if that happens), the entire incident would be a major strategic victory for the Taliban, which has many sympathizers in the Pakistan Army, which is making attempts to come back to power in Afghanistan.

India would now require to act in order to protect its interests. First of all, the Indian administration must ensure that Pakistan gets the message that India sympathizes with them and then slowly and steadily work would need to be done to ensure that the US do not vacate the Shamsi Airbase. Many in Pakistan have already viewed this 'accidental' attack as a direct attack by USA and India on their sovereignty, which has already been an issue of contention between the once upon a time allies (USA and Pakistan) for quite some time. Any more fuel into this fire would only result in consequences for the entire region including China, who want the US to exit from the region in order for them to achieve a greater level of influence on the struggling Afghan civilian government.

With the exit of the US troops from the region it would be very easy for the Taliban to take back control of the areas near the North-Western border of Pakistan and Afghanistan, which has very limited government presence with majority of the area being tribal in nature guaranteeing a firm base for the Taliban to make a comeback into the region and the regional politics.

India would need to bring the two allies to the table and ensure that both of them engage in a healthy discussion and sort out their differences at the earliest, if India wants to ensure a peaceful and stable neighbourhood. Manmohan Singh could play a major role in bringing the two to the table using the respect and influence that he has earned in the government circles of the both, the US and Pakistan.

Till then it can be expected that with the pressure on the government and the army in Pakistan building up to take a strict action against the US, the relations between the two allies can only expected to go downhill, if there is one. The US would need to play calmly at the moment in order to prevent the situation from worsening. But it sure isn't going to be a easy journey to keep track of unless and until India does not intervene.

Walking the Pakistani Tightrope

Even though relations between the two rivals are normalizing. It is in vast contrast to what lays underneath the surface.

The move by Pakistan to grant India the MFN (Most Favoured Nation) status was welcomed by a big majority in the diplomatic circles and was hailed as move towards a shift in the relationship between the two nuclear states. Manmohan Singh and Yousuf Raza Gilani who met in Maldives recently decided to break the deadlock that the two countries were in since after 26/11. Yet there continue to be rumors that there is a lot more than meets the eyes.

The UPA government which is at the moment at its lowest ever in public popularity is doings its desperate best in an attempt save face. With allegations against members of India Against Corruption rising, the government at the moment remains fairly convinced that it might have a chance in the state elections that are coming up in the next two years leading up to the general election in 2014. But even as the elections at the state level happen, there is a lot of reason for the UPA to take care in the way it deals with issues like terrorism, nowadays a major vote-puller in India.

Though the number of attacks in the country have decreased a lot, there still continues to exist a state of uncertainty among the populace as they deal with a neighbour (Pakistan) which every day heads close to either a military coup or take over by Islamic fundamentalists. The anger in India continues to be at the same level as after 26/11 with many a facebook pages coming up with negative results regarding celebrating the return to normal relations between India and Pakistan. Youth in India is eyeing every development with a keen eye, ready to get out on the street and corner the government for any mistake that they make. Hence, the ability of the UPA government to deal effectively with Pakistan will determine their odd of winning the upcoming elections. 

Carefully keeping the 'Kashmir' issue off the table, the government has succeeded in brushing of concerns of an 'unfavorable' round of table talks. With an on-going dispute between Omar Abdullah, the Jammu Kashmir Chief Minister, and the army already heating up the atmosphere in the country, including the Kashmir issue would have been a certain death warrant for the present Government. But the step to not include talks on punishment of the terrorist is also a bold step for this government which faces continuous flak from BJP, the primary opposition party,  for any and every mistake that it is committing in recent times.

Hence any progress between the two countries at best is balanced on a thin line at the moment. With internal pressure mounting on the UPA government to prove it's worth, the Pakistan card might just be the trump card that the government desperately needs at the moment. If India is successful in getting Pakistan to hand or even punish the culprits of the 26/11 attack, then it will be a guarantee that the odds against the Congress for the 2014 general election would have been countered and all parties would be on the same starting point.

Thus even as India tries to do its best to reach out to Pakistan, India's friendliness would directly depend on what Pakistan is able to do against terrorism. Any further attack on Indian soil would not only damage but paralyze the relationship for a long time if not permanently. Thus the onus is now on Pakistan to show results as the UPA government puts everything on line for their Pakistan card.